Storm or Stability? Indian Stock Market Forecast for August 2025

As August arrives, Indian benchmarks like the Nifty 50 and Sensex are expected to trade within a consolidation range, with potential for limited downside or a modest bounce. Technical forecasts place Nifty support near 24,800 and resistance around 25,600, signalling a narrow trading corridor and subdued momentum to start the month Bigul. A break below could expose levels closer to 24,200; conversely, a breakout may reinvigorate bullish sentiment

📉 Near‑Term Technical Sentiment

Indicators like RSI, MACD, and stochastic oscillators are currently indicating bearish bias or oversold conditions, pointing to a cautious vibe among traders. Volume trends are softening, reinforcing a neutral to mildly bearish tone in the immediate outlook.

📊 Macro, Earnings & Flow Dynamics

In July, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net sellers—offloading around $113 million in Indian equities—reflecting external caution ahead of global macro developments early August. At the same time, corporate earnings remain tepid, and valuation multiples are elevated—Nifty trading at a forward P/E ~23‑24× has analysts warning of a tentative correction in the coming weeks.

UBS maintains a cautiously optimistic base, suggesting an 8% upside for Nifty over the next 12 months, supported by falling oil prices, strong rural demand, fiscal stimulus, and a consumption-led recovery. Meanwhile, firm voices like Kotak Securities’ Shrikant Chouhan encourage a bottom‑up value‑pick approach, highlighting fundamentals‑based stock selection amid ongoing volatility and FII outflows.

✅ Summary: What to Expect in August

• Trading range: Nifty likely to oscillate between ~24,800 and 25,600, with limited conviction.
• Sentiment: Mildly bearish-to-neutral, with scope for short-term bounce if oversold levels attract bargain hunters.
• Risks: Elevated valuations, weak earnings momentum, and continued FII net selling. Global cues—particularly U.S. Fed policy—will also influence market direction.